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Wednesday Tropics Update


Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Fiona, located northeast of the southeastern Bahamas, and on 
Tropical Storm Gaston, located over the north-central Atlantic 
Ocean.

1. Western Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is producing shower and thunderstorm activity a few 
hundred miles east of the southern Windward Islands. The system 
continues to show signs of organization and it will likely become a 
tropical depression within the next two or three days. The 
disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward across the 
southern Windward Islands by late today and then move toward the 
central Caribbean Sea later this week. Interests in the Windward 
Islands should closely monitor the progress of this system as heavy 
rainfall and gusty winds could affect these islands beginning later 
today.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on 
Thursday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for 
at least gradual development of the system for a couple days 
thereafter while the system moves slowly northward, between west 
Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands, through the end of the week. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

3. East Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the 
Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized shower activity.  Slow 
development of this system is possible over the next several days 
as it moves northwestward and then westward over the tropical 
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


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