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Wednesday Tropics Update


Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Danielle, located several hundred miles west-northwest of the 
Azores, and on recently upgraded Hurricane Earl, located several 
hundred miles south of Bermuda.

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: 
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the 
Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions appear 
conducive for some development of this system, and a tropical 
depression could form in the next day or two while it moves 
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the eastern and 
central tropical Atlantic.  After that time, upper-level winds are 
forecast to become less conducive for development late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

2. African Coast:
A tropical wave currently located over western Africa is forecast to 
emerge offshore into the eastern Atlantic by the end of the week. 
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some slow development 
thereafter as the system moves west-northwestward over the eastern 
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


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