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Sunday Tropics Update


or the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
over the central tropical Atlantic continues to become better
organized.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
early to the middle part of this week.  This system is forecast to 
move westward at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic, approach 
the Windward Islands on Tuesday, and move across the southeastern
Caribbean Sea on Wednesday and Thursday.  Interests in the Windward
Islands should monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. Northern Gulf of Mexico:
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from
southeastern Louisiana across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and
the southern part of the Florida peninsula is associated with a 
trough of low pressure.  Development of this system is expected to 
be slow to occur as it drifts westward across the northern Gulf of
Mexico over the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

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