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NHC Tropical Update

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Near the Yucatan Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located near the east coast of the 
Yucatan Peninsula continues to produce a large area of disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and 
Yucatan Peninsula.  Despite strong upper-level winds, this system is 
likely to become a tropical depression or tropical storm while it 
moves slowly northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and 
southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two.  Interests 
in western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula should 
monitor the progress of this system, and tropical storm watches or 
warnings could be required for some of these areas later today.

Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall are likely 
across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba during 
the next day or so, spreading across southern and central Florida 
and the Florida Keys Friday and Friday night, and the northwestern 
Bahamas on Saturday.  These heavy rains could cause scattered to 
numerous flash floods across South Florida and the Florida Keys.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. Southwestern Atlantic:

A weak surface trough located about 150 miles northeast of the 
northwestern Bahamas is producing disorganized showers and a few 
thunderstorms.  Upper-level winds appear too strong for significant 
development of this system while it moves northeastward at 5 to 10 
mph over the southwestern Atlantic during the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
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