For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for some gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form around the middle part of this week. Further development will become less likely by the end of the week due to increasing upper-level winds. The system is forecast to move westward, then turn northwestward or northward by the end of the week over the eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. 2. East of the Windward Islands: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands have changed little in organization during the past several hours. Further development of the wave is possible, however, and a tropical depression could form during the next few days while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph, reaching the Windward Islands and the eastern Caribbean Sea by midweek. Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of the system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.