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Monday Tropics Update


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic 
is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers.
Although environmental conditions ahead of the system are currently 
only marginal favorable, some gradual development of this system is 
expected over the next several days and a tropical depression is 
likely to form later this week. The disturbance is forecast to move 
slowly toward the west and then west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph, 
toward the waters east and northeast of the Leeward Islands.  
Additional information on this system can be found in high seas 
forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A small low pressure system located about 600 miles east of Bermuda
continues to produce limited shower activity.  Strong upper-level 
winds and dry air are expected to limit significant development of 
this system while it drifts southward over the central Atlantic 
during the next day or so, and the low is likely to dissipate 
by midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa 
late today or tonight.  Some gradual development of the system is 
possible after that time while it moves generally westward across 
the far eastern tropical Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

4. Northwestern Caribbean Sea:
A trough of low pressure could develop over the northwestern 
Caribbean Sea during the middle part of this week.  Environmental 
conditions could support some slow development of the system 
thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward over the 
northwestern Caribbean Sea and toward the Yucatan Peninsula of 
Mexico. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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