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Monday Tropics Update


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with a 
tropical wave located about 950 miles east-southeast of the southern 
Windward Islands.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for 
further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form 
during the next couple of days before the system reaches the 
Windward Islands Tuesday night or possibly while moving westward 
across the southern Caribbean Sea Wednesday through Friday. A NOAA 
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system 
this afternoon.  Interests in the Windward Islands and along the 
northeastern coast of Venezuela should monitor the progress of this 
system, and tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for 
portions of these areas later today.  Regardless of development, 
locally heavy rainfall is possible over the Windward Islands and the 
northeastern coast of Venezuela Tuesday night and Wednesday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. Northern Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the north-central and 
northeastern Gulf of Mexico are associated with a trough of low 
pressure.  Development of this system is expected to be slow to 
occur while it moves west-southwestward at about 10 mph toward the 
northwestern Gulf of Mexico and approaches the coasts of southern 
Texas and northeastern Mexico during the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the 
Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions could become conducive for 
gradual development later this week while the system moves 
west-northwestward at around 15 mph over the central tropical 
Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.



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