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Hurricane Season Begins Today

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Near the Yucatan Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico: 
A large area of disturbed weather located near the Yucatan Peninsula 
is interacting with an upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico 
and producing a broad region of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive 
for gradual development, and this system is likely to become a 
tropical depression by the weekend as it moves northeastward into 
the northwestern Caribbean Sea, southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and 
crosses the Florida Peninsula. Regardless of development, locally 
heavy rainfall is likely across portions of southeastern Mexico, the 
Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, and Belize during the next couple of 
days, spreading across western Cuba, southern Florida, and the 
Florida Keys on Friday and Saturday. Interests in the Yucatan 
Peninsula, western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula 
should monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. Southwestern Atlantic northeast of the Bahamas:
A weak surface trough located around 200 miles northeast of the 
central Bahamas is producing disorganized shower activity as it 
interacts with an upper-level trough. Surface pressures are 
currently high across the area, and significant development of this 
system appears unlikely as it moves generally east-northeastward 
over the next several days away from the southeastern United States.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which 
will run until November 30.  Long-term averages for the number of 
named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 14, 7, and 3, 

The list of names for 2022 is as follows:

Name           Pronunciation    Name            Pronunciation
Alex           AL-leks          Lisa            LEE-suh 
Bonnie         BAH-nee          Martin          MAR-tin
Colin          KAH-lihn         Nicole          nih-KOHL     
Danielle       dan-YELL         Owen            OH-uhn  
Earl           URR-ull          Paula           PAHL-luh 
Fiona          fee-OH-nuh       Richard         RIH-churd
Gaston         ga-STAWN         Shary           SHAHR-ee
Hermine        her-MEEN         Tobias          toh-BEE-uss 
Ian            EE-an            Virginie        vir-JIN-ee
Julia          JOO-lee-uh       Walter          WALL-tur
Karl           KAR-ull

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