For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure is emerging over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and it continues to produce disorganized shower activity. Environmental conditions appear favorable for slow development, and a tropical depression could form while the system moves northwestward across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico late today or on Saturday. However, by Saturday night, the system is expected to move inland over northeastern Mexico, which will end its chances of development. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.